Steven_Jon_Kaplan's profile
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!["It's very hard to go against the crowd. Even if you've done it most of your life, it still jolts you." --David Dreman: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/householdstocks1952.png](https://www.sharewise.com/rails/active_storage/representations/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaHBBM3JIYkE9PSIsImV4cCI6bnVsbCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--190454e02b166db610d5783efdb24e5039e1cca6/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaDdCam9MY21WemFYcGxTU0lKTXpVd2VBWTZCa1ZVIiwiZXhwIjpudWxsLCJwdXIiOiJ2YXJpYXRpb24ifX0=--aa36f503a05c343bf077379e5dc8bce118d9db18/householdstocks1952.png?locale=us)
"It's very hard to go against the crowd. Even if you've done it most of your life, it still jolts you." --David Dreman
Winter Follows Autumn
WINTER FOLLOWS AUTUMN (June 30, 2024): Many investors have embraced the mythical "soft landing" scenario. Every multi-year bull market in U.S. history
!["The inability to hold cash and the pressure to be fully invested at all times meant that when the plug was pulled out of the tub, all boats dropped as the water rushed down the drain." --Seth A. Klarman: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzS2sO3m47TqT9aCRoYcGEcruR5Xd8JC5kwbf2Fz2WpUvDK5VBBQIypc-SmoahzAakVU9xA49j9BQXvy6zjdgmWDPv4eKC0A3dh0xqoSn6wowEATWE7roTdo4I7DCSFeK5FeJM0Gwag-aA/s200/Screen+shot+2011-07-02+at+4.30.05+PM.png](https://www.sharewise.com/rails/active_storage/representations/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaHBBMlJvYkE9PSIsImV4cCI6bnVsbCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--9a6b93a813db0395a4a7e68796100ad2da07942b/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaDdCam9MY21WemFYcGxTU0lKTXpVd2VBWTZCa1ZVIiwiZXhwIjpudWxsLCJwdXIiOiJ2YXJpYXRpb24ifX0=--aa36f503a05c343bf077379e5dc8bce118d9db18/Screen+shot+2011-07-02+at+4.30.05+PM.png?locale=us)
"The inability to hold cash and the pressure to be fully invested at all times meant that when the plug was pulled out of the tub, all boats dropped as the water rushed down the drain." --Seth A. Klarman
Nine Align; Benign? Nein!
NINE ALIGN; BENIGN? NEIN! (March 31, 2024): We have recently experienced several simultaneous extremes which investors are ignoring due largely to two
!["Most of the change we think we see in life is due to truths being in and out of favor." --Robert Lee Frost: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/QQQ2010.jpg](https://www.sharewise.com/rails/active_storage/representations/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaHBBOFgwYXc9PSIsImV4cCI6bnVsbCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--a1d9f1e796143c65be7dc09a4c99424c5dbf1d75/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaDdCam9MY21WemFYcGxTU0lKTXpVd2VBWTZCa1ZVIiwiZXhwIjpudWxsLCJwdXIiOiJ2YXJpYXRpb24ifX0=--aa36f503a05c343bf077379e5dc8bce118d9db18/QQQ2010.jpg?locale=us)
"Most of the change we think we see in life is due to truths being in and out of favor." --Robert Lee Frost
Busting Hedge Funds
BUSTING HEDGE FUNDS (December 17, 2023): I had worked at Thomson Reuters for 16-1/2 years; the person sitting next to me had the responsibility of tracking
!["The near absence of bargains works as a reverse indicator for us. When we find there is little worth buying, we find there is probably much worth selling." --Seth A. Klarman: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/USequityallocation1951.png](https://www.sharewise.com/rails/active_storage/representations/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaHBBMy9TYXc9PSIsImV4cCI6bnVsbCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--6e78948f0fbd1eb5b03862817f804c1815487efc/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaDdCam9MY21WemFYcGxTU0lKTXpVd2VBWTZCa1ZVIiwiZXhwIjpudWxsLCJwdXIiOiJ2YXJpYXRpb24ifX0=--aa36f503a05c343bf077379e5dc8bce118d9db18/USequityallocation1951.png?locale=us)
"The near absence of bargains works as a reverse indicator for us. When we find there is little worth buying, we find there is probably much worth selling." --Seth A. Klarman
Budding Bursting Bubbles
BUDDING BURSTING BUBBLES (November 12, 2023): Investors are easily impressed by large percentage moves, while barely noticing important asset behavior
!["When all feels calm and prices surge, the markets may feel safe; but, in fact, they are dangerous because few investors are focusing on risk." --Seth A. Klarman: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/m2growth1965.png](https://www.sharewise.com/rails/active_storage/representations/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaHBBNk9GYXc9PSIsImV4cCI6bnVsbCwicHVyIjoiYmxvYl9pZCJ9fQ==--894acdb9b72568c768ab90c9d6ac622e9dce3fad/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsibWVzc2FnZSI6IkJBaDdCam9MY21WemFYcGxTU0lKTXpVd2VBWTZCa1ZVIiwiZXhwIjpudWxsLCJwdXIiOiJ2YXJpYXRpb24ifX0=--aa36f503a05c343bf077379e5dc8bce118d9db18/m2growth1965.png?locale=us)
"When all feels calm and prices surge, the markets may feel safe; but, in fact, they are dangerous because few investors are focusing on risk." --Seth A. Klarman
Long Treasuries, Short Stocks
LONG TREASURIES, SHORT STOCKS (September 4, 2023): In the entire history of the U.S. financial markets there has rarely been an opportunity where