Bear of the Day: Hormel Foods (HRL)

Hormel Foods Corporation develops, processes, and distributes meat, nuts, and other food products to foodservice customers, convenience stores, and other commercial customers in the United States and internationally. The company provides various perishable products including fresh meats, refrigerated meals, and frozen items, as well as shelf-stable products like nut butters, tortilla chips, and nutritional food supplements.

Founded in 1891 and headquartered in Austin, Minnesota, Hormel Foods sells its products under a variety of recognized brand names such as Applegate, Mr. Peanut, Planters, Skippy, and Spam.

Hormel Foods continues to face mounting profitability challenges despite solid sales momentum in its latest fiscal quarter. Margins remain under strain as elevated input costs and inflationary headwinds weigh heavily on earnings, with pricing actions and cost-saving efforts proving insufficient.

At the same time, profitability across all key segments weakened further in the prior quarter, as commodity-driven pressures and higher selling, general and administrative expenses more than offset sales growth. The company also operates in a highly competitive food industry marked by price sensitivity and heavy promotions.

The Zacks Rundown

A Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) stock, Hormel Foods HRL is a component of the Zacks Food – Meat Products industry group, which currently ranks in the bottom 27% out of approximately 250 Zacks Ranked Industries. As such, we expect this industry group as a whole to underperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months, just as it has over the past few months:

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Stocks in the bottom tiers of industries can often be intriguing short candidates. While individual stocks have the ability to outperform even when they’re part of a lagging industry, the inclusion in a weaker group serves as a headwind for any potential rallies and the journey forward is that much more difficult.

HRL shares have been underperforming the market over the past year. The stock is hitting 52-week lows and represents a compelling short opportunity as we head further into the second half of 2025.

Recent Earnings Misses & Deteriorating Outlook

Hormel Foods has fallen short of earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters. Just last week, the company reported fiscal third-quarter earnings of 35 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by -14.6%.

Hormel has posted a trailing four-quarter average earnings miss of -5.6%. Consistently falling short of earnings estimates is a recipe for underperformance, and HRL is no exception.

The Spam maker has been on the receiving end of negative earnings estimate revisions as of late. Looking at the current quarter, analysts have slashed estimates by -12.77% in the past 60 days. The fiscal Q4 Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate is now $0.41 per share, reflecting negative growth of -2.4% relative to the year-ago period.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Falling earnings estimates are a huge red flag and need to be respected. Negative growth year-over-year is the type of trend that bears like to see.

Technical Outlook

As illustrated below, HRL stock is in a sustained downtrend. Notice how the stock recently hit a 52-week low, widely underperforming the major indices. Also note that shares are trading below a downward-sloping 200-day (red line) moving average – another good sign for the bears.

Image Source: StockCharts

HRL stock has experienced what is known as a “death cross,” whereby the stock’s 50-day moving average (blue line) crosses below its 200-day moving average. Shares would have to make an outsized move to the upside and show increasing earnings estimate revisions to warrant taking any long positions. The stock has fallen more than 17% this year alone.

Final Thoughts

A deteriorating fundamental and technical backdrop show that this stock is not set to make its way to new highs anytime soon. The fact that HRL stock is included in one of the worst-performing industry groups adds yet another headwind to a long list of concerns.

A history of earnings misses and falling future earnings estimates will likely serve as a ceiling to any potential rallies, nurturing the stock’s downtrend.

Potential investors may want to give this stock the cold shoulder, or perhaps include it as part of a short or hedge strategy. Bulls will want to steer clear of HRL until the situation shows major signs of improvement.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research

Source Zacks-com