Bear of the Day: Oscar Health (OSCR)

Oscar Health (OSCR) is a $5 billion digital health-insurance company that was expected to see a strong rise to profitability this year into 2026.

But even after raising top line guidance this year to $12-12.2 billion from $11.2-11.3 billion, analysts reversed course on their EPS forecast by moving the consensus from $0.61 to a loss of $1.42 in the past few months.

Next year's profit projection also flipped from $0.54 to a loss of $0.67. It's also worth noting that analysts haven't moved next year's revenue consensus from $11.26B, which would represent a 6.6% drop vs. this year's new guide.

Digital Innovator in a Competitive Space

Oscar Health’s primary competitors in the health insurance sector include both technology-driven upstarts and large legacy providers. Major direct competitors are Clover Health, Bright Health, Lemonade, NeueHealth, and Sidecar Health—all of which focus on digital-first, member-centric insurance or care delivery models.

Additionally, Oscar competes against traditional insurers such as UnitedHealthcare, Blue Cross Blue Shield, and CNO Financial. The competitive landscape ranges from specialized insurtech firms to established payors with scale, network breadth, and brand recognition.

Since Oscar Health’s 2025 guidance update, shares have rallied strongly from $13 to $23 as if a floor was put in with the upward revenue guide but downward profit outlook.

And analyst price targets have shifted upward begrudgingly, with the average target near $11, representing over 50% downside. Consistent with this pattern, yesterday Wells Fargo raised its target from $10 to $14 but reaffirmed its Underweight rating.

Bottom line: Investor optimism seems to be ahead of the fundamentals for OSCR. Waiting until the next quarterly report for better visibility is probably the best move as analysts will have more data to re-work their models. The Zacks Rank will let you know.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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Source Zacks-com