Can Centene's Q4 Earnings Escape Membership & Cost Headwinds?

Healthcare plan provider Centene Corporation CNC is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 6, 2026, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at a loss of $1.25 per shareon revenues of $48.24 billion. 

The fourth-quarter earnings estimate remained stable over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year plunge of 256.3%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 18.2%.

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For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Centene’s revenues is pegged at $192.12 billion, implying a rise of 17.8% year over year. Yet, the consensus mark for 2025 EPS is pegged at $2.01, signaling a decrease of 72%, year over year.

Centenebeat the earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 75.2%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Centene Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Centene Corporation price-eps-surprise | Centene Corporation Quote

Q4 Earnings Whispers for Centene

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

CNC has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping Centene’s Q4 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s total commercial memberships indicates a 29.7% year-over-year increase, primarily due to growth in the commercial marketplace. The consensus estimate for Medicare PDP memberships signals 15.6% growth from the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects the company’s premium growth at about 22.5% year over year. This is likely to have supported top-line growth in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total membership indicates a 2.4% year-over-year decline, due to decreases in Medicaid and Medicare memberships. The consensus estimate for the company’s total Medicaid memberships indicates a 2.7% decline from a year ago.

The consensus estimate for service revenues indicates a 2.6% fall from the year-ago quarter’s $777 million. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s investment and other income indicates a 0.8% year-over-year decline from $344 million.

Moreover, following the industry trend, CNC’s medical costs are expected to have remained elevated in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the total health benefits ratio is pegged at 93.7%, up from 89.6% in the year-ago period, meaning a reduced portion of premiums remaining in hand after paying claims. These are expected to have affected the bottom line, making an earnings beat uncertain.

How Did Other HMO Companies Perform?

Companies like UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH and Elevance Health, Inc. ELV have already announced results for the December quarter. Here’s how they have performed:

UnitedHealth reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.11, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09 thanks to growth in commercial fee-based membership and the strength witnessed in Optum Rx. However, elevated medical costs and declining risk-based membership partially offset the positives. UnitedHealth’s bottom line declined 69% year over year.

Elevance Health reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.33, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.3%. The bottom line also rose 3.1% year over year due to strong growth in premiums. Segment-wise, the Carelon division posted a robust revenue surge, aided by buyout and scaling risk-based services, while Health Benefits saw increased premium yields and Medicare Advantage membership growth. However, the upside was partly offset by a decline in Elevance Health’s overall medical membership and an elevated expense level.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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