POST Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Foodservice Strength

Post Holdings, Inc. POST reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with both the top and bottom lines declining year over year. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while the bottom line beat the same.

The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.78 per share, down 12.3% from $2.03 in the prior-year quarter. The metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.63 per share.

Post Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Post Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Post Holdings, Inc. Quote

Net sales declined 1.8% year over year to $1,948.0 million from $1,984.3 million and missed the consensus estimate of $2,019 million. Sales included a $141.8 million contribution from 8th Avenue.

POST's Margin and Cost Performance

Gross profit decreased 5% year over year to $566.3 million from $596.2 million. Gross margin contracted to 29.1% from 30.0% in the year-ago quarter.

Selling, general and administrative expenses increased 4.5% year over year to $326.1 million from $312.1 million. SG&A expenses, as a percentage of sales, rose to 16.7% from 15.7% in the prior-year period. Operating profit declined 19.3% year over year to $189.3 million from $234.6 million.

Adjusted EBITDA declined 5% year over year to $377.3 million from $397.0 million, while adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 19.4% from 20.0%. Management said that quarterly adjusted EBITDA modestly exceeded expectations, primarily driven by stronger-than-anticipated Foodservice performance, partly offset by softer Refrigerated Retail results. The year-over-year decline in adjusted EBITDA was primarily due to the absence of elevated HPAI-related pricing in the cold-chain businesses.

Post Holdings' Consumer Brands Results

Post Consumer Brands generated net sales of $974.2 million, up 6.6% from $914.0 million in the prior-year quarter but below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $990 million. Current-quarter sales included $141.8 million from 8th Avenue. Excluding 8th Avenue, volumes decreased 7.1%, with pet food volumes down 7.8% and cereal and granola volumes falling 5.5%.

Segment adjusted EBITDA increased 11.2% to $197.3 million from $177.5 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $195 million. Contributions from 8th Avenue and cost reductions more than offset lower volumes, while gross margin excluding 8th Avenue improved year over year.

POST's Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail Trends

Foodservice net sales declined 6.5% year over year to $652.9 million from $698.5 million and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $666 million. Volumes increased 4.3% year over year, supported by improved customer service levels and increased production of protein-based shakes.

Segment adjusted EBITDA decreased 11.4% year over year to $140.8 million from $159.0 million but surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $128 million. The year-over-year decline reflected comparisons against elevated HPAI-related pricing in the prior-year quarter.

Refrigerated Retail sales dropped 21.1% year over year to $184.5 million from $233.9 million and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $226 million. The decline partly reflected the Crystal Farms divestiture. Excluding Crystal Farms, volumes fell 4.9%, affected by the shift of Easter demand into the second quarter this fiscal year and normalization in egg demand.

Segment adjusted EBITDA fell 41.3% year over year to $26.6 million from $45.3 million and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $35.5 million. The decline primarily reflected the lapping of HPAI-related pricing, the Easter timing shift and the sale of Crystal Farms.

Post Holdings' Weetabix Performance

Weetabix net sales decreased 0.6% year over year to $137.1 million from $137.9 million in the year-ago quarter and were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Volumes declined 3.8% year over year, primarily due to lower private-label business, while foreign exchange provided a roughly 40-basis-point tailwind.

Segment adjusted EBITDA rose 13.7% year over year to $37.3 million from $32.8 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $35.8 million. Favorable pricing and cost savings from plant rationalization supported the increase, partly offset by lower volumes.

POST's Other Financial Information

For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, cash provided by operating activities was $691.3 million compared with $697.0 million in the prior-year period. Capital expenditures declined to $289.8 million from $360.5 million, while free cash flow increased to $401.5 million from $336.5 million.

During the third quarter, Post repurchased 2.1 million shares for $198.9 million at an average price of $98.86 per share. As of Aug. 5, 2026, $490.7 million remained under its share repurchase authorization. The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $265.6 million and long-term debt of $7,631.3 million.

Post Holdings' Future Outlook

Management narrowed fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1,560-$1,570 million from $1,550-$1,580 million, while retaining the midpoint of $1,565 million. The company expects fiscal 2026 capital expenditures to be between $370 and $390 million.

For fiscal 2027, Post Holdings expects adjusted EBITDA to be generally flat versus a comparable fiscal 2026 base of approximately $1,480 million. Management expects Foodservice growth from its normalized $500 million annual run rate, pricing actions and productivity initiatives to largely offset inflationary pressures and continued volume softness in certain categories.

This Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company’s shares have lost 17% over the past three months against the industry’s growth of 5.9%.

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Stocks to Consider

Some better-ranked stocks have been discussed below:

Darling Ingredients Inc. DAR develops, produces, and sells sustainable natural ingredients from edible and inedible bio-nutrients in North America, Europe, China, South America, and internationally. DAR currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DAR’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings implies growth of 12.8% and 926.5%, respectively, from the year-ago actuals. DAR delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 38.9%, on average.

The Chef’s Warehouse, Inc. CHEF distributes specialty food and center-of-the-plate products in the United States, the Middle East, and Canada. CHEF currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CHEF’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings indicates growth of 10.8 and 24.7%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures. CHEF delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 30.4%, on average.

US Foods Holding Corporation USFD, together with its subsidiaries, markets, sells and distributes fresh, frozen, and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers in the United States. USFD currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for US Foods’ current fiscal-year sales and earnings implies growth of 5.1% and 16.3%, respectively, from the year-ago actuals. USFD delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.4%, on average.

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