Pre-markets Soft on Excellent Economic Data

Thursday, January 8th, 2026

Pre-market futures are in the red this morning, though we wouldn’t be surprised if this turns around at some point during normal trading today. The reason for this? We have a lot of economic data released ahead of the bell, and all of it — all of it — is very, very good.
 

Weekly Jobless Claims Stay Tame

For about four months or so, Initial Jobless Claims have mostly remained below where many analysts had expected them to go: downward, and staying there. Last week, we saw +208K new claims, down from the +210K consensus though up from the slightly upwardly revised +200K the prior week. It’s possible we’re looking at some seasonal fog in terms of initial claims, so we’ll shelve a long-term verdict for now.

Continuing Claims came up a bit week over week to 1.914 million from the downwardly revised 1.858 million the previous week. This makes the fifth-straight month below the 1.94 million level, where we were for much of the fall. The one-year low came Thanksgiving Week, 1.83 million, while the high was 1.97 million back in July. We’d spend nearly 30 weeks between 1.90 and 1.97 million without ever broaching 2 million longer-term claims, which would change the narrative about a healthy labor market.
 

U.S. Productivity +4.9%, Trade Deficit -$29.4B

Preliminary Q3 Productivity — the “secret sauce” to the domestic economy, according to sages such as Warren Buffett — reached +4.9% in Q3, up from the strong upward revision of 80 basis points (bps) to +4.1% in the prior quarter. This nudges past 2023 highs and notches the highest level since the 20%+ in the economic comeback after the huge Covid drop in 2020.

Meanwhile, the delayed U.S. Trade Deficit halved expectations to -$29.4 billion — the lowest print since June 2009, and less than a third of what this same deficit was directly ahead of April tariffs: -$136 billion in March. Imports fell while Exports — particularly gold and pharmaceuticals — rose. At first glance, this is extraordinarily good news; what we may need to examine, however, is whether demand issues threaten to gum up the works.
 

What to Expect from the Stock Market Today

Bond yields are currently flat and market indexes — Dow -177 points, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 -8 points, Nasdaq -47 points — are negative. We’re still seeing positive trading yields in the past month and year to date; perhaps only having reached all-time highs is curbing investors’ appetite this morning. There do not appear to be any discernible headwinds economically. 

Then again, let’s re-visit after tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Finally, U.S. Consumer Credit is expected to be released as today’a closing bell sounds. This is a backward-looking November print, but is anticipated to remain steady at $9.2 billion. Cannabis-harvesting major Tilray Brands TLRY reports fiscal Q3 earnings after the close, expected to bring in +86% earnings growth on relatively flat revenues. Tilray is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), and looks for its third-straight earnings beat.

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