Will Declining Membership Affect Molina Healthcare's Q2 Earnings?

Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH is set to report its second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.37 per share on revenues of $10.9 billion.

The second-quarter earnings estimate remained stable over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decrease of 75%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decline of 4.8%.

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For the current year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina Healthcare’s revenues is pegged at $44.4 billion, implying a fall of 2.2% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for current-year EPS is pegged at $5.23 per share, indicating a 52.6% year-over-year decline.

MOH missed the consensus estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and beat once, with the average surprise being negative 186%.

Molina Healthcare, Inc Price and EPS Surprise

Molina Healthcare, Inc price-eps-surprise | Molina Healthcare, Inc Quote

Q2 Earnings Whispers for HUM

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

MOH currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

What’s Shaping MOH’s Q2 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MOH’s second-quarter premium revenues from Medicaid business indicates a 1.6% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure, whereas our model predicts 4.5% growth. Similarly, the consensus mark for premium revenues from the Medicare unit signals a 1.2% increase from a year ago.

The consensus mark for the Marketplace’s Medical Care Ratio (MCR) is pegged at 84.89% for the to-be-reported quarter, improving from 85.40% a year ago. Our model estimate for total operating expenses indicates a 0.8% year-over-year decline.

However, the consensus mark for premium revenues from the Marketplace business implies a 46.4% decrease from the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for Molina Healthcare’s total membership is pegged at 5 million, indicating a decline from 5.8 million a year ago.

Meanwhile, the consensus mark for Medicare’s MCR is pegged at 93.69% for the to-be-reported quarter, deteriorating from 90% a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Medicaid’s MCR for the second quarter is pegged at 92.94%, up from the year-ago level of 91.30%.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for MOH, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

ProMIS Neurosciences, Inc. PMN has an Earnings ESP of +13.30% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for ProMIS to report a loss of $1.45 per share for the to-be-reported quarter, indicating an 80% year-over-year improvement. It has witnessed one upward revision against no downward movement over the past 60 days.

Alcon Inc. ALC has an Earnings ESP of +1.83% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alcon’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 1.3% increase from a year ago. The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 3.7%. The consensus estimate for ALC’s revenues is pegged at $2.8 billion, signaling a 7.3% increase.

Cardinal Health, Inc. CAH has an Earnings ESP of +1.24% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cardinal Health’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter predicts 16.4% year-over-year growth. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 10.3%. The consensus estimate for CAH’s revenues is pegged at $65.6 billion, a 9.1% increase from the year-ago period.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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