AI Uncertainty Melts Away Market Gains

Thursday, February 12th, 2026

A funny thing happened on the way to the stock market rally: confidence in economic strength began to sharply erode upon the worst Existing Home Sales report in four years. This seemed to generate a drop in bond yields, which led to a general “needle-scratch” across trading as of mid-morning. The Dow skidded -669 points, -1.34%, the S&P 500 -108, -1.57%, the Nasdaq -469, -2.03% and the small-cap Russell 2000 fell -53 points, -2.01%.

AI disruptions were front and center, easily spotted in commercial real estate giants like CBRE CBRE and Jones Lang LaSalle JLL, down -8.8% and -7.5% today, respectively. Software remains a perceived target of AI’s ascendance, seen clearly in AppLovin’s APP -19% drop today, even after beating on earnings yesterday. Ultimately, today’s selloff is borne from uncertainty, as investors continue to reassess how AI can be expected to transform the economy — employment included.

Existing Home Sales melted down from a 12-month high 4.27 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units to 3.91 million in January, the biggest one-month drop, -8.4%, since February of 2022. The chief economist at the National Association of Realtors stated that “affordability conditions are improving,” and an exceptionally cold month likely played some role here.
 

Q4 Earnings Extravaganza After the Close: EXPE, ABNB, COIN, ROKU & More

Expedia EXPE outperformed expectations in its Q4 report this afternoon, but shares continue to sell off in late trading. Earnings of $3.78 per share were nicely ahead of the $3.46 in the Zacks consensus for the travel booking company’s third-straight beat, while revenues of $3.55 billion came in ahead of expectations and representing +11% year over year growth. Q4 bookings, Adjusted EBITDA and Business-to-Business all came in higher than expected. But overall trading is a little haunted right now, so shares are down -3% in the after-market.

One notable exception to this is Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)-rated Roku ROKU, which came in well above estimates on both top and bottom lines: earnings of 53 cents per share zipped past the 28 cents anticipated on $1.39 billion in revenues, ahead of the $1.35 billion in the Zacks consensus. Shares immediately gained +19% on the news, but have since tamed somewhat.

Airbnb ABNB missed earnings expectations by a solid dime to $0.56 per share, but that was due to a one-time tax expense for the quarter. Revenues came in at $2.78 billion, ahead of the $2.72 billion analysts were looking for. This was the 20th quarter in the last 21 that Airbnb has come out ahead on revenues. The full-year guide was also higher.

Coinbase COIN endured a rough quarter with the loss of value to Bitcoin and other crypto, but the company’s -$2.49 per share for Q4 we do not believe to be comparable with the +$0.61 expected, though revenues also missed projections: $1.78 billion versus $1.82 billion in the Zacks consensus. Transaction revenues and subscriptions were both light of expectations.

Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)-rated Applied Materials AMAT, on the other hand, had a healthy fiscal Q3, with earnings of $2.38 per share on revenues of $7.01 billion surpassing the $2.19 per share and $6.89 billion anticipated. Semiconductor equipment sales are expected to boom for the company in this 2026 AI build-out. Shares are up +13% in after-hours trading.

EV maker Rivian RIVN also posted Q4 beats on both top and bottom lines, with -$0.54 per share an improvement over the -$0.69 expected, with $1.29 billion in revenues coming in, compared with $1.26 billion analysts were looking for. Even with the EV tax credit abolished, Rivian expects to deliver between 62K-67K vehicles in 2026, with the new R2 expected in Q2 of this year. Shares are up +16% on that news.

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